What Happens When There’s Nobody Left to Move to the City? | Newgeography.com
Renn notes that many cities are simply sucking the young adults out of the rural areas and into the cities. This is a quandary for the rural towns, but another quandary is what happens to the cities a few years after that?
More below the fold.
We know that most jobs in cities are located in the suburbs and exurbs, and that the core accounts for less than 20% of job location. Job growth between 2010-2014 made this difference even more dramatic. We also know from extensive demographic data, and polling that most people want to live in suburbs, exurbs, or rural areas.
The Childless City | Newgeography.com
The cities current trajectory is in part due to urban planners who want the city to be attractive for childless couples, and singles, and in part it is due to parents who want some land for their children to play on, and land is dear in the city, but less costly and less restricted in the suburbs, and exurbs.
What happens once the self drive car, remote work, and the aging of the Millennials all converge? Perhaps the Millennials will not move back to Fossil, Oregon, it is pretty remote, but there are myriad exurbs, and rural locations to which Millennials with school age children, and a remote work job could locate, and live comfortably, for cheap.
It seems that a large number of cities are attempting to make themselves into the model Portland, Oregon has followed. If there are sufficient numbers of people who want to live that lifestyle, all will be well. If, on the other hand, this model is only sustainable with new young blood, and that blood runs out, these cities will be in a world of hurt.
Public officials never seem to be willing to say, "Gee, I made a mistake."
The Ponderous Pace of Planning | The Antiplanner
And so we have pedestrian malls which lower property values, and drive up vacancies till the problem becomes catastrophic. I find it unpersuasive that the dozens of cities following the Portlandia model will simply call it off and go back to wooing families. Instead, I suspect they will just keep on truckin,' until they can't.
Will this offer the young families the opportunity to move back into some of the dying small towns? I don't know, but I seldom hear that question raised, and it seems plausible.
How ready are our cities for the changes coming in the next few decades?