The Road To 2025 (Part 1) – Prepare For A Multi-Polar World
He gets the timing dead-bang right. We are in the crisis epoch in the grand 80-year historical cycle. Each epoch is 20 years or so and has a specific character. The current one is crisis and war. Essentially, during the past 60 years, we failed to take the necessary actions, and the discontinuities and problems have finally created the crisis which will only be resolved by confrontation. This usually means war, and I expect it will mean war this epoch.
"Since World War 2, the U.S. has successfully sustained a position of global dominance unlike anything the world’s ever seen. Virtually each and every corner of the planet has been subject to inescapable and overwhelming American influence, both culturally and economically. This root of this power didn’t just emerge from GDP strength and the USD, but from Hollywood, popular music and tv shows. The impact of the U.S. empire on the planet over the past 70 years has been extraordinary but, like all things, it too shall pass. I believe this end will be realized by around 2025."
The last crisis epoch began in 1929 with the stock market crash and the Great Depression and ended in 1945 at the conclusion of WWII. The conclusion of the crisis epoch triggered a great rebuilding which included rebuilding the American national order and the construction of new world order, socially, economically, and politically. The rebuilding epoch lasted from 1946 to about 1966.
We found ourselves again at the beginning of a great economic/market turmoil in 2008 with the housing market crash which triggered the Great Recession. Both of the great economic calamities were caused primarily by the Federal Reserve Bank, and the President through incompetent economic policies, laws, and regulations. Amity Shlaes provides an excellent analysis of the problems the consequences of failed federal policies in her book: The Forgotten Man: A New History of the Great Depression
"When I say this sort of stuff people think I’m calling for the end of the world. I suppose that’s what it may feel like to many, because a paradigm change of this magnitude will indeed have monumental global implications.
Yet the world will go on, it’ll just be very different place. That said, Americans should not see this as an apocalyptic thing. It’s not healthy or sustainable for one nation to dominate the planet in such a manner. Many of us like to think that a benevolent global empire led by philosopher kings is just fine, but the problem is this is utter fantasy. What happens in real life, to quote Lord Acton, is that “power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.'"
Mike believes the world will become more multipolar, and perhaps it will. I do not understand which nations will participate in this new multipolarity. Europe is dead. Russia is a dying nation with a third world natural resource extraction economy. China is a dead man walking, but perhaps it will survive, not fracture into pieces and play a role in the creation of new world order. I can't see that but maybe. What other nation could participate? Brazil? Hardly. South Africa? No, it is attempting to become Zimbabwe.
"The country’s been looted and pillaged with rapacious fervor in recent decades while a unaccountable class of people I refer to as top-tier predators operate at will with total impunity. The man on the street’s thrown in jail for the smallest offense, while financiers who destroyed the global economy with fraud retire comfortably to their mansions. The U.S. empire no longer benefits the average American, but instead systematically funnels all the spoils to a smaller and smaller segment of the population. Most of the world already sees it, and the average U.S. citizen is starting to see it as well. This is not good for the establishment."
These problems are what arise at the end of an economic model. We are at the end of the progressive economic model. It is now far beyond its sell-by date. The nation has been trying to create a new economic model since the early 1980s, but the politicians find the graft and corruption of the hoary old progressive model too enticing to walk away from. Plus, the politicians know that what replaces the progressive model will be far less amenable to their corrupt practices, vote buying, and the like.
The problem with a shift in the economic model is that it creates pain for pretty much everyone, including the politicians, the bureaucrats, businesses and the average Americans. We see some of this today. Sears is dying. It was the harbinger of a new economic model when it sprang into being in 1892. Its business was mail order, and it was the same kind of juggernaut that Amazon is today. It changed the American retail and economic model at the turn of the last century and ushered in the progressive era. It dies because it could not accept the new changes brought by Amazon, and the Internet. Ironic as it did the same to myriad small local businesses back before the turn of the 20th century. Live by the sword, die by the sword.
Just as the old economic model died and was replaced at the beginning of the progressive era, so the current model will die and be replaced. I expect that will be a significant part of the rebuilding epoch which will begin in about 2028 (so Mike and I agree quite closely on the dates of this shift).
He is right that middle America is not benefiting like that hope, and he is also right that civil rights have been decimated. But what finally triggers the crisis epoch is a culture wars epoch. Our last culture wars occurred from 1988 to 2008 and, sadly, President Obama extended it for an additional eight year of double down culture wars. This is the reason we seem to be in such political conflict and turmoil. Obama, instead of allowing the crisis to take hold and begin resolving the problems manifest by the culture wars, brought them back for a second run.
Each culture wars period increases authoritarianism and begins to look dystopian. The previous culture wars period lasted from 1909 to 1929 and involved such niceties as alcohol prohibition; the result was harsh government crackdowns and a strong authoritarian push. The same things also happened in foreign countries spawning socialism, fascism, authoritarianism, and Nazism. Ultimately, the 1920-1945 crisis resolved most of these issues (not socialism, however), and replaced them with new American and world orders.
There have been four crisis epochs in American history, including the current one. The first was the American Revolution, the second was the American Civil War, the third was the Great Depression and WWII, and the fourth we are in the midst of today having passed the halfway point. If we look at the past crisis epochs in American history, we see the underlying causes are always the same. Authoritarians have spent the past 60 years fighting to reduce and eliminate civil, human, natural, and constitutional rights and frequently forces abroad have been doing the same thing. The trigger is the lack balance between liberty and state authoritarianism. The state in each case has become overweening, powerful, and destructive. Social, economic, and political triggers are pulled, and the result is the forces for liberty force the retreat of the forces state authoritarianism.
The Revolutionary War was triggered by the list of thing enumerated in the Declaration of Independence, plus the marching of British soldiers on Lexington and Concord to disarm the people. It was the forces of authoritarian Monarchy and whimsical rule which were besieged by the forces of liberty. Liberty prevailed.
The American Civil War was triggered by the same essential stressors. These stresses caused the Whig party to collapse and the staunchly antislavery Republican Party to be created in 1954. The election of Lincoln in 1960 was too much, and the South seceded from the Union trigging the bloodiest war in Amerian history. Again, it was the forces of authoritarianism, slavery, and oppression which were besieged by the forces of liberty. Liberty prevailed.
For the first time in American history, the crises epoch of the WWII era triggered a war outside of North America. While the forces of authoritarianism were influential in the nation, they were even stronger abroad, and more dangerous. The result was a worldwide conflict where authoritarianism, fascism, socialism, Nazism were pitted against the remaining Western forces supporting liberty. Again, liberty prevailed.
The $64 question is where will this crisis epoch's war take place. There is every reason to believe it will take place in America due to a massive schism. The progressive left has martialed its troops at Google, YouTube, Facebook, and nearly all other Internet platforms to shut down any civil libertarian, classical liberal, conservative or other speech which does not comport with the left progressive cant. The media has taken to whipping children into a frenzy of anti-liberty and anti-civil rights foaming and frothing whether the issue is guns, global warming, pronouns, or nearly any other trivial nonsense available. Politicians long thought to be conservative, once in power show, they are not conservative at all, and pursue the progressive leftist agenda. Academia is out if its mind, like a rabid dog, followed closely by the semi-rabid K-12 teachers and their unions. The vast American middle finds all of this absurd, and dangerous.
There is every possibility that the irrational progressive left could become unhinged and trigger secessions. All it would take is for Mueller to fail to take down Trump and the Trump Department of Justice to file charges against people like McCabe, Hillary, Brennan, Rice, and a long laundry list of other miscreants in the upper echelon of the Obama administration.
On the other hand, foreign affairs are in dangerous waters and dire straits. Obama left the world a smoking hulk and a most hazardous mess. While it presently looks like the Middle East is the most likely problem area. There is no reason that if a war starts, it will not trigger more conflict in other regions.
While the New American Civil War III seems far-fetched, so did the first North American civil war the American Revolutionary War. Likewise, no one was predicting an American civil war during the 1850's and not until Lincoln was elected President. If I remember correctly, the European powers were celebrating peace shortly before the Germans began running roughshod over the continent. We mostly think things are fine until they are not. Then it is too late to panic, or even plan, it is time for war, full-throated existential war. This war will like the other three be fought as if it is life or death; winner takes all.
So far liberty has always won during the American crisis epoch wars. What will happen if it does not win this time? I don't know, but the forces of authoritarianism, who seek to take away civil, human, natural, and constitutional rights if not stopped will do all of that and more. My guess is we will drop into a hellish Holodomor like state where violence becomes an accepted political tool. That would mean a new Dark Ages. Real wrath of God stuff!
The permanent rise of a violent anti-liberty government has never happened in America, and I do not believe that the vast American middle will ever allow it to happen. That said, I am unwilling to tempt the fates. This will require all hands on deck, and represents an existential fight to the death.
This will all be concluded within a decade. After that, a significant rebuilding will begin. Unlike Mike, I do not believe there will be a new international multipolarity. The United States and the rest of the Anglosphere are some of the only remaining forces for moral good on the planet. The Nordic nations and perhaps Finland also fit this bill. But the rest are a mixed lot at best and rogues and ruffians more often. I cannot see a confederation of nations with enough strength to enforce a new world order excepting the United States and its Anglospheric and Nordic allies. Perhaps this is the multipolarity Mike is talking about, maybe not.
I believe the new world order will be a dismantling of the UN and the existing multinational entities. They have proven to be fountains of corruption mostly running on US dollars, but of little real value in the world. This includes the IMF, World Bank and pretty much all of the rest. The UN is a cesspool. There is no longer a serious anti-liberty threat to the world as there was with the USSR, and China during the 20th century. I expect that the new world order will mostly be an Anglospheric/Nordic political confederation which will pressure other nations to accept that we are at the end of history and we know what socio-economic-political system works to maximize human productivity and wellbeing. That system is Capitalism: free markets, republican governance, the rule of law, reformed religions, extensive civil, and human liberties embraced within a constitution and the resulting civil and ethical society.
The next 80 years will be an attempt to get everyone on board so they all can participate in the benefits of this system. America will remain the primary driver of these goals. No matter how multipolar, America will be the driving engine.
The Fourth Turning: An American Prophecy - What the Cycles of History Tell Us About America's Next Rendezvous with Destiny
Category: Fourth Turning
Facebook’s Digital Reign of Terror
The desire to support your candidate is understandable. The failure to understand that your opponents will fight back is not. Right now more than half of the population is inundated with YouTube accounts of videos being demonetized, accounts being frozen, or deleted entirely. The same things are happening across the social media spectrum. At Google, it is actively firing employees who do what Google asks them to do if the response does not meet the far progressive leftist goals of the Google Star-chamber.
Oxfam staff in Chad held 'sex parties attended by prostitutes'
Notice how many of the men accused of sexual harassment, rape and abuse are Boomers? The Boomers came of age in a libertine "spiritual" awakening. The new epoch will be moral and propper. These men will have significant trouble in this new legal environment. To make matters worse, justice will be much quicker and rougher, and more draconian than over the past 40+ years.
Wary Hollywood studios set to add 'morality' clauses into contracts
A return to the Hays Code? This is interesting, and not unexpected. Morality will become more important in American life than it has been since 1967.
Trump gives with one hand, takes with other: Paid family leave would force parents to delay retirement
As we move deeper into this Crisis period, we will see all of our institutions come under scrutiny including our most cherished like Social Security and Medicare.
I suspect at first the changes will be wrapped up in policy changes like this SS change, which offers paid family leave in exchange for delayed SS benefits. In the end, I suspect these changes will grow to allow the voluntary transfer of long-delayed SS benefit start for partial SS personal accounts today. By this I mean, people will be able to own a portion of their SS account outright and place it in an investment account in exchange for a long delay in the potential for SS benefits start. I would expect the SS benefits might be delayed a decade or more to 77 or even later (I would suggest tagging it to the average American longevity). I would double down and require high-income earners match the amount of SS they invest with an equal amount of personal investment into the account. This would all but ensure that nearly every one of these people would have adequate funds to keep them off of SS. I would also add a means testing rubric for the people who avail themselves of this benefit. Again, this would likely mean these people would never take SS benefits, but they would continue to pay into the system, making SS more secure and reliable.
You're fired: Trump to rid 'worst' federal workers, automatic raises, fat bennies
"President Trump plans to take the huge federal Civil Service off cruise control, ending automatic pay increases that go to 99.7 percent of the workforce, trimming fat benefit packages, and for the “worst,” rolling out his trademark phrase from The Apprentice, “You’re fired!”
In his budget, set for release Monday, his administration is planning the biggest reform to the federal workforce in decades, using models from Amazon, Google, and a handful of well-operating agencies.
Officials said the overall goal is to bring the 1950s-styled Civil Service into the digital age, introduce automation, reward “the best” with bonuses, make it easier to hire and fire, and provide “flexibility” by moving employees where they are needed and even rehiring skilled retirees.
Gone would be the automatic reward of pay “step” increases of 3 percent to 5 percent which 99.7 percent of workers get, regardless of their performance. Also targeted, said the officials, are annual reviews that now give “everybody” a grade of four or five on a scale of five. And benefits, now 47 percent higher than in the private workforce, according to a congressional report, will be trimmed.
“This is a subject that essentially people have ignored,” said a top Trump budget official at a background briefing. “The American people elected a president that promised dramatic change.'"
Fourth Turning: On relieving the Culture Wars pressure between growing authoritarianism and declining individual liberty
I Should Know: Dems' Intel Abuse Is Reminiscent of My Work for Ceausescu
"Seen from my vantage point, the four-page FISA abuse memo authored by Rep. Devin Nunes is proof that former president Barack Obama and Democratic Party leaders wanted to transform the U.S. into a Russian-style intelligence dictatorship -- and the FBI into a KGB-style instrument for rewriting American history by smearing its capitalist politicians.
They say that history repeats itself. If you have lived two lives, as I have done, you have a good chance of seeing a re-enactment with your own eyes.
Forty years ago, I paid with two death sentences from my native Romania. I had publicly revealed that Ceausescu's highly praised independence from Moscow was in fact an undercover intelligence dictatorship, designed to transform Romania into a monument to him by annihilating his critics and enemies. "I'll give you a name, and you'll build a criminal record for him," Ceausescu used to tell the head of the Securitate -- his Marxist version of the FBI. For him, lying was the first step toward stealing and killing."
Women, Progress, and Automobiles in Space
"A progressive woman laments how Elon Musk is, in her view, wasting his money launching automobiles into space. Instead, she tells us, he should spend his billions on Flint, a Democrat-run shithole (thanks, Mr. President, I’m using that term a lot more from now on) that can’t even deliver clean water to its residents.
As tired as my newborn has made me in recent days, this is worse. Progressive arguments like this are legion. Instead of using your money for anything else, you should dedicate it all to notions of wealth distribution. Forget your personal desires, your dreams, your aspirations for the very future of mankind itself… instead give everything to politicians.
Dear readers, enough is enough. I’m usually at least somewhat polite on this blog, so take it to heart when I say this. Grasp my full meaning: fuck them all. Toss them out of helicopters, or into woodchippers, or just air drop them into Somalia. I don’t even care anymore. But this is the last straw, folks."
That sums up the problem nicely! We are in the Fourth Turning, the culture wars will soon end. I am not sure I have the patience to wait.
Woodchipper them all!!!
Fourth Turning: John Bolton does an excellent job of summing up where we are in the generational turnings!
America’s Unimportant, Unserious Wars | Small Wars Journal
He concludes, presciently:
"Consumed with internal faction and fighting culture wars, America needs to get serious—and quickly. Difficult choices lie ahead. We cannot continue doing what we have, excusing failure because we did not drop enough bombs or spend enough money. After a pause for reflection, we must strike a balance between the poles of isolating nationalism and neo-liberal nation building. We must disabuse ourselves of a nationalism that serves our adversaries’ agenda at the expense of our own. Americans have hyperbolic expectations of permanent primacy and world leadership as their birthright. Nothing is guaranteed, particularly world power. Our founders were wiser, reminding us “the price of freedom is eternal vigilance.'"
We are at the point where all of these issues are becoming clear, and the responsible Boomers of a profoundly irresponsible generation will begin preaching the need for change. These men like Bolton, Jordan Peterson, and many others feel the need to to take up the mantle of Prophet and speak truth to the young, and the young are responding.
Great change lurks just around the corner, now is the time to prepare.
The Fourth Turning: This article nicely echoes what I've been saying that our historical cycles repeat
"Blame Men" - Toxic Masculinity, 1920s-Style
We just concluded the past cycle of the Culture Wars/the unraveling. The last period of Culture Wars/unraveling occurred from 1909 - 1929. It included WWI, Prohibition, Women's Suffrage and the first modern emancipation of women, a surge in violent criminality, and many other events and actions like the creation of the Federal Reserve Bank, an Amendment to the Constitution authorizing the direct election of Senators, and an Amendment of the Constitution allowing the federal government to directly raise an income tax from the people.