We are going to need a bigger federal prison system to hold all of the Obama administration felons!

Andrew McCarthy recommends

"Responding to a message about his weekly NR column this morning, Andrew McCarthy wrote me: “Have a look at this thread. I don’t know who is behind this Undercover Huber account, but he clearly knows what he’s doing, and how FBI/DOJ work — gotta be some former or current fed prosecutor.” Here is the first tweet in the thread that can be accessed by clicking on the link or the tweet itself. Take a look."

Undercover Huber on Twitter

​More below.

"Will the truth ever come out? What we have here for anyone with eyes to see is the slow uncovering of the biggest scandal in American political history."

This is not just a scandal but criminal corruption so deep and extensive that it takes the breath away. 

At the end of this trip down corruption lane, we will either reclaim our republic, or we will lose our republic to tyranny. We will lose it if the media, the Democratic Party, and the establishment Republicans are successful in concealing these facts from the people. 

If we reclaim our republic, many shocking things will happen. 

First, the media who have failed to cover this story even rudimentarily will collapse. No one will pay to read or listen to them if they are unwilling to report on the most massive government corruption scandal in American history. 

Second, many high-level Obama officials will be indicted, and many are likely to go to prison. This will not just include high-level officials in the bureaucracy, like Wade, Comey, Strok, Paige, and Rosenstein, but also Cabinet-level officials like Lynch, Brennan, Clapper, Clinton, and others.

Third, the Democratic Party will be severely damaged perhaps destroyed. If the corruption reaches up to the Cabinet-level officers, there is little hope for the Democratic Party. The antics of Congressional Democrats will be uncovered as attempts to cover up corruption. I cannot see the great American middle forgiving the willingness to cover up massive corruption to avoid party disintegration. The Democratic Party collapse will not be limited to federal officials but will change politics at every level of government. 

Fourth, this will trigger a massive governmental reformation which will likely cascade from the federal downward into the states and local governments. The idea of large bureaucratic government filled with nonpartisan individuals will be proven a lie. The result will be a complete lack of trust in bureaucracy and the idea of nonpartisan government employees. I do not know where this reformation will go. Expect the key reformation to be a massive reduction in the size of government and the numbers of government employees. I am partial to the idea of privatization, so I am biased towards this outcome. It will not need to be privatization, but the reformation of government will downsize government in the same way total privatization would downsize government.  

Once begun, I expect that government employment will be reduced by 70-80% within 20 years at all levels and probably half that time for the federal reductions. These reductions will not just "privatize" but will result in the elimination of programs and radical reformation of scope and goals of programs. 

While I am biased in the areas of government size and scope reductions, after watching decades of government increasing in size with every failure of government, I believe we are beginning to understand that more government does not help protect from the predations of government but instead only provides more areas for these predations. But perhaps my bias is leading me astray. You will need to evaluate that on your own.

We are now in a period of massive historical change. As I have written before, all political issues are an attempt to adjust a slider between liberty and state authoritarianism. Those who seek liberty conflict with those who seek state authoritarianism to control others. The problem is those who seek liberty are unattentive because they love liberty and detest dealing with the state. But those on the side of state authoritarianism enjoy manipulating the state to achieve their ends. This mismatch means that over time, those who strive for liberty will slowly lose their liberty to those who desire control over others through state authoritarian action. 

He's been wrong about everything so far, why not one more thing?

Socially women oppose liberty; men support liberty

Fourth Turning: On relieving the Culture Wars pressure between growing authoritarianism and declining individual liberty

As the political slider moves inexorably towards state authoritarianism, those who strive for liberty become more shocked until it becomes clear that something must be done to throw off the authoritarian shackles. This is not the first time this has happened in American history. It happened before our Revolutionary War when we concluded that the authoritarian British state was too oppressive and we revolted. Liberty won the day and America separated from Britain and devised our republican government, grounded in liberty.  It happened again in the mid-1800s when the South seceded from the union to keep the immoral, unethical, and authoritarian institution of slavery. The South lost, the union was preserved, and the authoritarian institution of slavery was abolished. It happened again in Europe and the Far East when the powers of state authoritarianism arose and ignited the Second World War. The powers of state authoritarianism again mostly lost although the Cold War was an armistice in this war. 

In addition to the above change, we are also facing the need to completely reform our social systems, economic system, and likely more. The world order is now 72 years old and in need of serious reformation. The systems in place like the UN, and the Bretton Woods institutions like the World Bank, and the IMF are no longer able to address the world's needs. In part, this is because they rely on the bureaucratic progressive state system which is collapsing, and in part, it is because they were always a compromise necessary due to the Cold War. With the Cold War over, we need to reform these institutions, the world economy, and the national economies. 

Another area which is changing and causing great consternation is the basic industrial model. The Industrial Revolution is over at least as far as its ability to employ individuals. We need a new economic model to supplant the industrial model and once again drive prosperity. I am not convinced this model will have employment as a significant mechanism to redistribute wealth, just as employment was not a wealth redistribution mechanism until the advent of the industrial model. The Industrial Revolution demanded employment, so we created the concept of employment. There is little evidence that the new model will need large-scale employment so we should expect employment, once again, to vanish.

Try selling this to the average establishment Republican or Democratic politician. They are not buying it. They want to keep the industrial model as it has provided them with extensive graft and corruption and will continue to do so. 

While no one knows what the new non-employment model will look like, I would suggest that the Uber model is something to watch. The reason is Uber has created a non-employment model which keeps the senior policy level employees but eliminates all need for middle management and employees. The customers are harnessed to manage the employees and are compensated through superior services and lower prices. The employees are freed from the prying eyes of middle management but are only compensated for their true productivity. There is no hiding among the weeds and still getting paid. 

The current system allows the vast majority of people to be non-productive or even slightly unproductive, while a tiny few are massively productive. This is referred to as the Pareto Effect and holds that 80% of the workers do only 20% of the work. The problem is that the productive and unproductive are mostly paid similar wages.

The 80/20 aspect is not a good representation of what is happening. The rule breaks down as follows. Take the number of productive individuals in an endeavor. Then take the square root of that number to find the total number of people who will account for one-half of the productive output.  Then take the square root of the square root to find the tiny few who produce one-quarter of the total productive output. For example, there are approximately 7 million Uber drivers. The square root of 7 million is 2,645 which is the number of people who will produce one half of the total productive output. The square root of 2645 is 51 which is the number of people who will produce one-quarter of the total productive output. 

This curve is shockingly steep with most people barely productive at all and a few phenomenally productive.  The Uber model allows significant freedom for employees but requires they be productive or their pay will suffer. This model nearly ensures that the economy using it will grow tremendously perhaps exponentially. The politicians are unwilling to walk down this road because they cannot see this benefit and they are comfortable with their current graft and corruption model. 

Will the Uber model supplant the employment model? Maybe, but something will. The politicians can slow down the process, and they have successfully been doing so since the early 1970s. But they cannot stop this shift. 

The last point I will make is that human history does not repeat but because human group behavior and the political slider effect discussed above predominate in human political affairs, our history goes through repeated cycles of expanding liberty followed by slow contraction of liberty until there is crisis followed by a period of conflict, resolution of the conflict in favor of liberty which is followed by a period of hard work rebuilding the institutions which will assure liberty, followed by a period of expansive liberty, which is followed by a slow contraction of liberty until there is a crisis ... Yeah, lather, rinse, repeat. 

Fourth Turning: On relieving the Culture Wars pressure between growing authoritarianism and declining individual liberty

Category: Fourth Turning

Just to make sure you are keeping tabs, my predictions are below. You will need them to pillory me if I am wrong!

Category: Predictions