GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 0.4% Following More Weak Economic Report | MishTalk
. . . damn ugly!
I admit to being still a bit high centered by the data, which is hard to fathom currently. I have little faith in the Fed, or the Blue Chip Economic forecasts. They tend to be more wrong than right. I also have found both Mish, and MaxedOutMama to be reasonable forecasters.
But, I am pretty conservative when it comes to economic forecasts. So, I am still on the fence. I suspect that we have perhaps a 40-45% chance of an actual recession. I do not think Stockman is correct with his wild eyed apocalyptic forecast but who knows.
I also think while stock prices are absurdly high, the flight to security from a recessionary world will cause inflows to the US of substantial monies looking to buy assets. Let's be honest, debt is not very attractive right now, and assets like corporate stock, and other real assets are likely to attract significant interest.
Then again, I am a long term player, I buy and hold mostly index funds.
Good luck out there!