The great transit rip-off "Over the past decade, there has been a growing fixation among planners and developers alike for a return to the last century’s monocentric cities served by large-scale train systems. And, to be sure, in a handful of older urban regions, mass transit continues to play an important — and even vital — role in getting commuters to downtown jobs. Overall, a remarkable 40 percent of all transit commuting in the United States takes place in the New York metropolitan area — and just six municipalities make up 55 percent of all transit commuting destinations." More below. Transit is only truly viable in New York, beyond that its value and ROI drop off quickly.
"The rail lines have earned Mayor Eric Garcetti almost endless plaudits from places like the New York Times. Yet, since 1990, transit’s work trip market share has dropped from 5.6 percent to 5.1 percent. MTA system ridership stands at least 15 percent below 1985 levels, when there was only bus service, and the population of Los Angeles County was about 20 percent lower. In some places, like Orange County, the fall has been even more precipitous, down 30 percent since 2008. It is no surprise, then, that, according to a recent USC study, the new lines have done little or nothing to lessen congestion. This experience is not limited to L.A. Most of the 19 metropolitan areas with new mass transit rail systems — including big cities like Atlanta, Houston, Dallas and even Portland, Ore. — have experienced a decline in transit market share since the systems began operations." As our metropolitan areas grow, our transit carries a smaller percentage of total trips and commuters. This panics the planners, resulting in absurd planning edicts like requiring housing to be limited to transit oriented developments. "Virtually all housing development proposals are required to be “transit-oriented,” which seems bizarre, given the sector’s declining market share. Meanwhile, poor people get degraded local bus service and ever-higher gas prices to accommodate a supposed surge of wealthier potential transit riders. This won’t help them find jobs, either. In the Los Angeles metropolitan area, for a commute of 30 minutes or less, the average employee is within 60 times as many jobs by car as by transit." Transit limits opportunity lowers annual earnings and when combined with land use restrictions limiting housing, drives up home prices to astronomic levels. So, what are the alternatives which might work? "Rather than try to re-engineer the region, perhaps we should seek mobility solutions that can work. Building new rail lines — and, and even more absurdly, trolleys, which average a pathetic 8 miles per hour — will do nothing relieve traffic. More densification can be expected only to worsen congestion. Arguably, the most promising step would be to encourage work at home. There are already more people working at home than transit riders in Southern California. Since 1990, home office use increased by eight times that of transit use, with virtually no public expenditure. Home-based workers, needless to say, do not receive subsidies. Ride-hailing services such as Uber and Lyft, cited as a factor in the recent ridership declines in Los Angeles — and even New York — can also provide cost-effective solutions. Already, one local transit operator in suburban San Francisco has established a one-year pilot program to extend local transit service through ride-hailing, and canceled a lightly patronized bus route, reducing costs while providing quicker door-to-door service." The base model cannot be to return to the 19th century. We need to find new solutions which will lead us into the 21st century. The pressures here show that the Uber employment model where more, or perhaps all employees are converted into independent contractors who work for multiple businesses and often from home would seem to be a valuable model. But the government is loath to allow the employment model to change. The Democratic Party has spent most of 80 years controlling business through political control over the employment relationship, and unions. They will not willingly allow these changes as they will dramatically erode the political power of the party. The government and the progressives cannot stand athwart progress shouting stop for long. Americans will continue to move forward no matter the road blocks, and bear traps laid by the government and progressives. The sooner we understand that change is the necessary cathartic to initiate the new economic model we so need to move society to a new, better, and wealthier place.
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