The economy is not as hot as some would like . . .

http://www.cnbc.com/2016/04/08/first-quarter-economy-looks-bleaker-by-the-day.html

. . . you to believe.

"Some economists now see first-quarter growth as negligible, and it could easily turn out to be negative.

Economists shaved already weak growth forecasts by a few more tenths Friday, after wholesale inventories fell 0.5 percent month over month in February, much more than the anticipated 0.1 percent decline. January was also revised down by 0.4 percent."

We have discussed this here, often. The US economy is very weak, the world economy is even weaker, with parts in a recession, and other parts in a long term depression. 

The southern European countries are in what must be described as a depression with incredibly high unemployment, especially under 35 unemployment. 

Northern Europe is stronger but still it looks more like America today, with a slow, tired economy looking for a nap. Don't look here for world economic salvation.

China is impossible to parse, since all its data is suspect. Secondary sources are difficult, and so the Chinese economy is unclear. What is clear is China has a massive debt problem, and is hemorrhaging money. Expect the negatives to continue in China, and the positives to be mostly made of whole cloth.

Again, Russia and the rest of the BRICS are in very bad shape, with Brazil leading the pack. I expect no salvation from this quarter.

Japan is in demographic decline, and is midst attempting the difficult maneuver of destroying its money without destroying the country. This is a great place to be short. You go girls.

The oil patch, whether they have healthy multifaceted economies like Norway, or they are mono oil economies like Saudi Arabia, are all in pretty bad shape. All of these countries have begun to rely more heavily over the past decade on their oil incomes to provide for government revenue. This is a very bad idea as when the oil price drops, so do government revenues, and the commonly associated welfare perks that go with it. 

The Middle/Near East is doing what it always does, playing a tawdry low budget game of thrones. Expect the Islamic Reformation to continue which means wars, proxy wars, and rumors of wars. All of this will dampen growth and turn profits into munitions, which will then be expended. This will once again prove Bastiat correct, breaking things does not grow an economy, it shrinks it.

Africa is poor, and will remain so, although it is rapidly improving its economic position, because it has so far to go we will simply see it as poor. Africa is actually one of the bright spots in the world economy. If they can just put together the whole rule of law thing, they are ready to power out of poverty. 

Hans Rosling has a number of talks up over at TED, they are all well worth you time. He is a European democratic socialist, what we here call a progressive, and he is in the tank for wackadoo climate alarmism, but beyond that, he has an excellent grasp of world demographics, and tells a story well, especially one about his grandmother and a washing machine. Plus, he really does have great visuals. 

Hans Rosling's TED talks

As you can see, if the US drops into a recession it seems the world will just slowly slump into a recession. I would suggest it will be a European style recession of exhaustion, not a US style recession triggered when mature reason finally catches irrational exuberance. 

Yellen and the Fed are clueless about all this, luckily they are manning the levers of monetary policy. Sigh!