Peter Schiff’s Delusional Forecast
Schiff sometimes has a good idea, so does Stockman, but they are over the top with their shrill end-of-the-world garbage. Yes, Stockman understands that China is a debt Ponzi, and, yes, Schiff got some of the 2008 panic correct. That does not mean they are infallible. Oh, and Mish is a gold bug, in case you missed it.
I prefer holding the broad equity markets, I have done so since the early 1980s and I have done well with this strategy. I do not hold nor trade in commodities, or futures, and I generally steer wide of debt instruments, that will likely change as I age, but there is no reason for Maddog and wife to be heavy into such instruments today. From what I can tell, Maddogswif will work until they carry her out in a coffin. By my calculation that should be sometime in 2120, or so.
Expect to see a lot more of this kind of apocalyptical BS over the next year. The Presidential candidates will be alleging all manner of economic horrors, the world will be in recession, and horror sells, especially in the investment world. Shake it off. The China Ponzi will have only a small effect on the US economy, and most of that should be positive. After all China will want to sell, and will want to do so at a steep discount, for us this is a huge buying opportunity, although I do not believe there will be many takers.
Most odd with Schiff is his 1970s era belief in the resurrection of inflation. This will not happen. We are in the beginning of a long deflationary period, which is driven by increasing global trade; increasing free trade agreements; automation; robotization; the aging demographics of China, Japan, Europe, Eastern Europe, Russia, and others; and tech, and especially AI. It is also driven by the long period of artificial inflation created by the US Federal Reserve Bank.
Schiff is stuck using Cold War era analytical spectacles to evaluate 21st Century problems. While he will still be correct occasionally, it is unlikely he will be correct often, or on the substantive issues.
Danger Will Robinson! Danger