When Economic Doomsayers Stumble: Cautionary Tales From Brexit, Grexit and U.S. Budget Battles
The article takes a more generic tact, but these wrong answers are nearly always come from the progressive economist who truly believe in Keynesian economics ability to correctly interpret events. The problem is it does not and can not because it has a fallacious understanding of human nature, and how humans act.
So, we have progressives economists who believe the Fed should stimulate the economy, but after stimulus fails to act as they believe they don't revise their theory, they simply double down, and demand more. When more doesn't work, again they double down, arguing that, "The amount of stimulus was too little."
These people are arguing a political point not an economic point. But because they are economist they dress up the point in economic jargon, and parade it as if it were real economic thought. It is not. These arguments are generally unsupported political arguments, made to cause fear, and drive the people towards the goal the progressives want.
"'Forecasters often feel incentivized to pump up the probability of worst-case scenarios” said Philip Fetlock, an expert in political forecasting at the University of Pennsylvania. Forecasters may inflate the probability of disasters, as a way to increase the salience of a warning, or because they believe that proving prescient will be something they can boast about, while proving mistaken will be something most people forget. “Over time, this has some corrosive effect on trust in the expert community,” he said."
Phil misses the elephant in the room. Yes, these forecasters want to be right so they can boast, but they even more believe they are right, and need to herd the people towards the "correct" outcome. Yet, when they fail, the people are invariably correct, the disaster the forecaster's ideology demanded did not occur, and the forecaster looks the fool.
When we see people like President Obama, or Janet Yellen, who are wrong time and time again, we need to stop listening to them. They are using problematic data sets often too small, too focused, or they are using faulty analytical frameworks. In either event, they are likely to be wrong more then they will be right.
Soon, these "experts" will be wrong about the outcome of raising the minimum wage, of the outcome of Obamacare, and nearly every other economic problem they have sought to "fix." It is time to stop allowing them to "fix" problems which are not problems, with solutions which are problems.