Iran fulfils pledge to raise oil production - FT.com
"Iran is fulfilling its pledge to raise oil production and exports almost six months after western sanctions on the sector were lifted, surprising many analysts and commentators."
What exactly did these dingleberries expect? Pat-a-cake? Iran's economy has been under sanctions for years, they are also locked in an existential war with the House of Saud and Salafism/Wahhabism. Kindergartners could forecast how Iran would react to the removal of sanctions, but experts, or commentators? Nope.
The Financial Times should name these wankers so we know to whom we should not to pay attention. Holy Mother of Pearl!
"Iran is engaged in a battle for market share with Saudi Arabia and other regional rivals in its efforts to regain customers after years of curbed oil sales that crippled its economy."
Yes, we know, and everyone has already said this, so let's get on to something more original.
"Mike Wittner, oil analyst at Société Générale, said: “Most people felt the Iranians were talking a big game ahead of the lifting of sanctions. This was an oil market wild card and they have surpassed our expectations.'"
OK, one name in the bag.
"Although some of April’s crude sales could be due to loadings carried over from March, this month should see a further increase as Iran releases more barrels just as the oil market glut begins to subside."
Ever notice how the oil glut is always "just about to subside" but doesn't? The experts are oil bulls to a man. They are paying attention to all the wrong signals, and not even seeing the correct signals. Expect lots of articles to begin with the word, "Surprisingly . . . " Because they are going to be surprised, and often.
"The comments suggest the prospects of a deal to curb production at next week’s Opec ministers’ meeting in Vienna are slim.
Iranian politicians have made a commitment to their people to rebuild production and exports almost halved by the western sanctions, say analysts. This has made any moves towards a deal with Opec kingpin Saudi Arabia impossible. Pressure to strike a deal urgently has eased as the price of Brent crude has rebounded 70 per cent from its January lows.
Tensions between the regional rivals were evident last month when a plan for countries of the cartel and other big producers to freeze output unravelled after Tehran rejected Riyadh’s demands that it join in.
Saudi Arabia has also taken steps to slow Iran’s efforts at increasing oil exports by banning carriers of Iranian crude from its waters, say traders and shipbrokers."
These analysts couldn't read between the lines if their lives depended upon it. 1. there will be no deal on oil cuts, Iran doesn't want them, and Saudi can't stand them. 2. What actually makes moves towards oil kingpin Saudi impossible is the existential Islamic Reformation underway pitting Iran against the House of Saud. 3. Banning Iranian oil ships from Saudi waters should lay to rest any argument that these parties are not at war. Today it is a proxy war, a cold war.
The authors end noting many of the remaining issues with Iran selling its crude. And still, Iran is pumping and selling at near pre-sanction levels. These problems will not long stand in the way of these sales, Iran will find ways to pump more, and sell more, and reap the benefits of this massive currency infusion.
This will force the House of Saud, and its allies to pump even more.
The oil bulls are always pointing out how the supply will shrink, and demand will explode, while the reality is supply continues to grow, and demand is tepid at best.
Surprisingly . . .