In the Immortal Words of Daniel Pipes…
Read the whole thing, but also click through to the underlying article, it has a bit more to offer.
Pipes and I are approximately on the same page. I think the war of reformation will happen between the Shia primarily Iran, and the Sunni, primarily the House of Saud. I think the former are more likely to success, but that is yet open for debate. Regardless, both need to be reformed in heat of the reformational forge. Until they are there is danger of a serious conflict involving not just the Islamic nations, but the West and others as well.