Why the Eurozone Will Destruct
Agreed. I recently wrote about this here: (The EU, and Britain misunderstand Brexit consequences)
"No discussion of eurozone problems would be complete without a discussion of Target2, an abomination created by the eurozone founders and one of the fundamental flaws of the euro.
Target2 stands for Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement System. It is a reflection of capital flight from the “Club-Med” countries in Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Italy) to banks in Northern Europe.
Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog provides this easy to understand example: “Spain imports German goods, but no Spanish goods or capital have been acquired by any private party in Germany in return. The only thing that has been ‘acquired’ is an IOU issued by the Spanish commercial bank to the Bank of Spain in return for funding the payment.”
Monetary policy can help external balances but it cannot fix internal target2 balances."
Ok, so trade surpluses, and deficits are not a problem in nations where the monetary system can absorb or dissipate value. Meaning that in monetary systems which are independent, and free floating, the comparative price between the two currencies simply adjusts up or down to reflect these minor shifts. But in a system like the EU, the monetary policy is unitary, and rigid, and, so, cannot float. This leads to the destructive imbalances between export nations, and import nations.
"Eventually Spain, Greece, or Italy will realize it is impossible for them to pay back what is owed.
Once that realization sets in, some country will default on their euro-denominated liabilities. Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement in Italy is on board with that idea already."
Right, at some point this Stein's Law takes control, and something which cannot go on forever will stop. So, what then?
"1. Germany and the creditor nations forgive enough debt for Europe to grow
2. Permanently high unemployment and slow growth in Spain, Greece, Italy, with stagnation elsewhere in Europe
3. Breakup of the eurozone
Germany will not allow #1. It is unreasonable to expect #2 to last forever. The only door left open is door #3.
The best move would be for Germany to leave the eurozone. Germany is in the best shape to suffer the consequences."
While Germany leaving would right the ship, it would not permanently right the ship. This is because the same rigid monetary system, and imbalances would ultimately result in later imbalances. These later imbalances would eventually result in the destruction of the system. The EU simply put cannot stand as created, it will eventually fail.
The best option is to unwind the EU as it is, rewrite it as the peoples of Europe want it, if they want it at all.
Britain will survive Brexit, the EU cannot. In fact, Britain leaving the union will cause the decay to increase in speed, and the collapse to happen sooner.
The Gonfalons in the EU, are crowing about the damage they will do to Britain, while their ship slowly sinks beneath them. Ship of Fools, indeed.