MADDOG'S LAIR
  • Blog
  • About
  • Contact

Another take on why Britain is better positioned to survive Brexit than is the EU:

9/10/2016

Comments

 
Why the Eurozone Will Destruct

​
More below.
Agreed. I recently wrote about this here: (The EU, and Britain misunderstand Brexit consequences)

"No discussion of eurozone problems would be complete without a discussion of Target2, an abomination created by the eurozone founders and one of the fundamental flaws of the euro.

Target2 stands for Trans-European Automated Real-time Gross Settlement System. It is a reflection of capital flight from the “Club-Med” countries in Southern Europe (Greece, Spain, and Italy) to banks in Northern Europe.

Pater Tenebrarum at the Acting Man blog provides this easy to understand example: “Spain imports German goods, but no Spanish goods or capital have been acquired by any private party in Germany in return. The only thing that has been ‘acquired’ is an IOU issued by the Spanish commercial bank to the Bank of Spain in return for funding the payment.”

Monetary policy can help external balances but it cannot fix internal target2 balances."

Ok, so trade surpluses, and deficits are not a problem in nations where the monetary system can absorb or dissipate value. Meaning that in monetary systems which are independent, and free floating, the comparative price between the two currencies simply adjusts up or down to reflect these minor shifts. But in a system like the EU, the monetary policy is unitary, and rigid, and, so, cannot float. This leads to the destructive imbalances between export nations, and import nations. 

"Eventually Spain, Greece, or Italy will realize it is impossible for them to pay back what is owed.

Once that realization sets in, some country will default on their euro-denominated liabilities. Beppe Grillo’s Five Star Movement in Italy is on board with that idea already."

Right, at some point this Stein's Law takes control, and something which cannot go on forever will stop. So, what then?

"1. Germany and the creditor nations forgive enough debt for Europe to grow
2. Permanently high unemployment and slow growth in Spain, Greece, Italy, with stagnation elsewhere in Europe
3. Breakup of the eurozone

Germany will not allow #1. It is unreasonable to expect #2 to last forever. The only door left open is door #3.

The best move would be for Germany to leave the eurozone. Germany is in the best shape to suffer the consequences."

While Germany leaving would right the ship, it would not permanently right the ship. This is because the same rigid monetary system, and imbalances would ultimately result in later imbalances. These later imbalances would eventually result in the destruction of the system. The EU simply put cannot stand as created, it will eventually fail. 

The best option is to unwind the EU as it is, rewrite it as the peoples of Europe want it, if they want it at all. 

Britain will survive Brexit, the EU cannot. In fact, Britain leaving the union will cause the decay to increase in speed, and the collapse to happen sooner. 

The Gonfalons in the EU, are crowing about the damage they will do to Britain, while their ship slowly sinks beneath them. Ship of Fools, indeed.
Comments
comments powered by Disqus

    Author

    Maddog

      Blog Subscription

    Subscribe to Blog

    Categories

    All
    1000-ways-to-die
    Abortion
    Amazon
    America
    Antisemitism
    Anti-semitism
    Bible
    Blogging
    Blue-model
    Book-links
    Booze
    Bus
    Cancer
    Children
    China
    China-ccp
    China-gdp
    China-ghost-cities
    China-ponzi
    Climate-change
    Coast-guardrescue-swimmer
    Cold-war
    Concealed-carry
    Constitution
    Cool-stuff
    Corruption
    Creative-destruction
    Crime
    Crisis-change
    Dead-guy-vote
    Dead-pool
    Death-of-the-pc
    Declaration-of-independence
    Deflation
    Democrat
    Demographic-decline
    Diet
    Earth-hour
    Ecommerce
    E-commerce
    Economic-change
    Economy
    Education
    End-of-history
    Energy
    Environmentalism
    Epa
    Eric-barker
    Europe
    Executive-outcomes
    F35
    Faith
    Family
    Fascists
    Financial-irresponsibility
    Financial-times
    Firearms
    First-world-problems
    Fitness
    Flight-to-security
    Food
    Fourth-turning
    Free-eye-exam
    French
    Funny
    Gdp
    Gdp-usa-vs-britain
    Gdp-usa-vs-germany
    Gdp-usa-vs-sweden
    Generational-theft
    Global-warming
    Government-incompetence
    Government-we-deserve
    Happiness
    Health
    Helicopter-parent
    Hell
    Holocene
    Honor
    Housing-affordability
    I-love-beaver
    Imf
    Immigration
    Independence-day
    Inefficiency
    Inflation
    Innovation
    Intelligence
    Intergenerational-conflict
    International-relations
    Investing
    Iran
    Iraq-war
    Islamic-reformation
    Italian-travel
    Japan
    Jodie-foster-effect
    Kayaking
    Keynesian-economist
    Kurdistan
    Law
    Leave-nato
    Leave-the-un
    Light-rail
    Maddog-story
    Marine
    Marriage
    Media
    Medical-insurance
    Medicine
    Middle-east
    Military
    Military-waste
    Money
    Monopoly
    Nanny-college
    News
    New-seasons
    Nirvana-is-another-name-for-hell
    North-korea
    Nukes
    Obama-doctrine
    Oil
    Oregon
    Organic
    Parenting
    Partition
    Pearl
    Pensions
    Peter-principle
    Police
    Politicians
    Portland
    Portlandia
    Portland-transit
    Predictions
    President-bush
    President-feckless-odither
    President-obama
    Psychology
    Race-huckster
    Rape
    Recession
    Recipe
    Replace-the-un
    Republican
    Research-studies-are-always-wrong
    Reviews
    Russia
    Salafism
    Sanctions
    Science
    Science-versus-faith
    Self-defense
    Self-drive-vehicle
    Sex
    Shale-oil
    Shia
    Sjw
    Sleeper
    Smart-growth
    Socialism
    Sovereignty
    Sport
    Sunni
    Supreme-court
    Syria
    Tax
    Technology
    Terrorism
    The-fed
    The-house-of-saud
    The-last-economic-superpower
    Therapy
    Trade
    Transit
    True-believer
    Tvfilm-review
    Un
    Union
    Urban-planning
    Urinals-of-note
    Venezuela
    Voter-fraud
    Wages
    Wahhabism
    War
    War-crimes
    Weird
    Weird-science
    Welfare
    Whole-foods
    Work



    RSS Feed

​Maddog's Lair is copyright 2016-2018 by Mark Sherman. Please feel free to quote from this site provided you link back to the original article.
Proudly powered by Weebly
  • Blog
  • About
  • Contact