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Again, this misses the point in the Saud-Iran Islamic Reformation struggle

10/13/2016

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​Saudi Arabia’s hard choices on oil and regional influence
​
More below.
"It should not have required the massacre of more than 140 people at a funeral for Washington to review support for the Saudi-led coalition’s brutish war in Yemen. There have been numerous other massacres that should already have prompted action. In their bid to pummel Houthi rebels into submission and restore an ousted ally to the capital, Sana’a, the Saudi air force has — intentionally or not — struck hospitals, weddings, schools, mosques and marketplaces, according to a report to the UN Security Council. These attacks undoubtedly contravene international law. They also contribute to creating the conditions for a famine.
* * * 
Nor can the Saudis point to much progress in achieving their aims — to restore a client regime next door and thwart Iran’s expansionary ambitions. They have tried to control Yemen over the decades by co-opting a shifting constellation of actors and tribes. Along the way they made little effort to assist the Yemenis in nation-building, or address chronic underdevelopment in a country running out of water, the poorest of the poor.

They are succeeding no better with their war effort; rather, this has exposed them as incompetent and weak."

The House of Saud is weak. 

This article gets pretty much everything wrong. The problem for the House is the fact that it cannot cooperate with Iran now that Iran is strengthened by the US lifting of the international sanctions. Iran has a real economy, Saudi only an oil economy. While Saudi would like the price of oil to rise, it must have the funds from oil exports or face internal strife. The House of Saud has paid off its people to keep them from rebellion for decades. During the last two decades these payments, and the standard of living of the average Saudi went through the roof. This was fine since the price of oil allowed the House to continue meeting these needs. 

The sanctions on Iran also partially muzzled that dog. This left Saudi to act as it wished. The US lifting sanctions is the huge shift, not the fact that the oil economy is different then it was in the 19080s. The oil economy is the same, it is the House of Saud's welfare state, and the lifted Iranian sanctions which are different. 

The proxy wars in Yemen, Iraq, Syria are all part of the Iranian plan to help the Shia who live in the oil rich regions of the Middle East gain political control of the oil. This will shift the balance of power to the Shia, of which, Iran is the largest power. 
What we are seeing is a base tribal conflict which also has a more existential component, the struggle between the Shia, and the Wahhabi/Salafi/Sunni. 

The oil commentators seem not to have any understanding of these geopolitical, and georeligiopolitical issues. They comment as if this was solely an oil issue, or perhaps an economic issue. This makes their analysis valueless. 

A great disturbance is brewing in the Middle East. While I like to think of Europe as the next geopolitical trouble spot between the dying Europeans, and the new muslims, it would seem the troubles in the Middle East still trump those issues. 

And don't forget, the troubles do not stop at the borders of the Middle East. These troubles are following the religion throughout North Africa, Central Africa, and on into the Near East, and likely beyond that border.

If we are foolish, we will engage in this war on one side or the other, probably on the side of the House of Saud, or real enemy. If we are intelligent we will allow these elements to fight this war, hot, or cold, on their own, to their own conclusion, but always undermining the position of the House of Saud economically.
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