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Europe Is Firmly Committed To Economic Suicide — Manhattan Contrarian
All Trump needs to do now is to eliminate the corporate income tax (and preferably the personal income tax and institute a national sales tax instead of retail goods and services). If Trump could pull this off, the USA would become the premier destination for manufacturer relocation. We have low energy costs; many states have excellent work rules, low land costs, and high-quality workers ready to work. Europe is dying demographically. They seem intent on allowing death to happen. So be it. We can at least offer a lifeline to businesses worldwide that want to relocate to a country with a better business environment. The big upside is that this would kickstart the American economy, particularly if combined with a permanent reduction in regulations of an additional 50% or more. "In various posts over the years, I have argued that the long-term economic prospects for the likes of China and Russia are not very good. Among other reasons, the dictator-for-life governance model leads to inherent instability that undermines incentives for investment and growth. And then there’s the inevitability of state-directed capital allocation leading to massive investment in boondoggle projects that fail spectacularly. See as a couple of examples, from March 2018, “Is It Possible For A Dictatorship To Be A Top World Power?”, or, from July 2015, “In Case You Thought The Chinese Knew What They Were Doing.” Therefore, Europe should have a huge leg up on these successors to Stalin and Mao. After all, the European countries basically have market economies, although overlain with bloated and unaccountable regulatory bureaucracies. They have a solid base of creative entrepreneurship. Really, how badly could they go wrong? But the big problem for Europe is that most of their governments are firmly committed to economic suicide. This is particularly true for the countries with the largest economies, Germany and France. Among data points from just this week, here are a few: From Deutsche Welle, we learn (May 20) that the European Commission is circulating a draft plan for massive support of the auto industry — 100 billion euros or more — that has been very hard hit by the virus crisis (sales down as much as 97% in April). However, the Commission intends to use the money to subsidize, in its words, “clean” modes of transport: “[T]he paper proposes that €40 to €60 billion of the package come in the form of investments dedicated to "clean cars" such as electric vehicles, and other new technologies that do not rely on fossil fuels. The Commission is also seeking to have 2 million public charging ports across the EU by 2025. However, the plan does not touch on the fact that there is still massive debate on how clean small occupancy private vehicles can really be, electric or not.” The rest of the industry will be out of luck. Not surprisingly, the desertion of Europe by the traditional auto industry continues, as so-called “climate” policies make it difficult to impossible for the sector to operate. From the Daily Express, May 22: “Europe's car industry was put on alert for more job losses on Friday as a French minister warned Renault could disappear if it didn't get help soon and a Japanese news report said partner Nissan was considering 20,000 layoffs, with many in Europe.” And from Clean Energy Wire, May 21, there is a report of a German association of “energy-intensive” industries sending an open letter warning against layering on additional energy costs if Germany wants to have a successful exit from the virus-induced recession. From the head of the German Chemical Industries Association: "Energy costs could become the industry's biggest stress factors," said Wolfgang Große Entrup, head of the German Chemicals Industry Association (VCI), told newspaper Die Welt. He called emissions reduction policies like emissions trading, the renewables surcharge or the coal exit a ‘sword of Damocles’ already looming over the companies, which is why a further tightening of regulations would hit them particularly hard. Meanwhile, back in China, while the world’s attention has been diverted away from the “climate” obsession by the virus thing, they are taking the opportunity to push forward on fossil fuel development. From Reuters, May 22: China said on Friday it will bolster the capacity of the country’s energy reserves and offer lower gas and electricity charges to key industries, as it looks to ensure energy supply and offset the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. In energy announcements on the first day of the parliament, known as the National People’s Congress (NPC), authorities also pledged to boost the country’s oil and gas network and continue to support exploration for unconventional gas reserves. The Chinese may be operating with a ball and chain attached to their economy as a result of the dictatorship governance model and the crony-capitalist economic model, but at least they are not committed to economic suicide. Here in the U.S., at least while Trump is President, we’re leaving the economic suicide to the crazy blue states like California and New York. The rest of the country at least has a fighting chance." France's Determination To End Free Speech Knows No Limits
All socialist, fascist, and similar regimes ultimately resort to censorship because it is the only tactic they can use to win debates. Welcome to the new Vichy France. Taiwan Draws Up "Humanitarian Assistance" Plan To Resettle Hong Kongers
Although the results are similar, Midas' touch turned everything to gold, Xi's touch turns everything to ash. Hong Kongers will flee, the totalitarians, and with them will go the majority of China's creativity and innovation. China cannot steal its way to the top since its success is based on the theft of ideas and intellectual properties. China is at its top until it changes its socio-economic system from totalitarian socialism to cooperative capitalism with its individual liberties, property rights, and personal responsibility. China is done. A ‘Dirt Bike Kid’ Graduates to a Record-Setting Motorcycle
Take your time dating, but treat dating as your most important job, because it is, then marry well. Never sell your first bike. Watch Ferris Bueller's Day Off until you understand the message. Listen to Pink Floyd's "Time," hell listen to Pink Floyd's albums Meddle, Dark Side of the Moon, and Wish You Were Here until you inderstand the messages. Life is risky, revel in it, a dull life is a life not worth living - which is to say, live big. Stand alone at the edge of the world and realize you are insignificant, then revel in it because you are here for a reason, so you are far more important then you realize. Find your purpose for your meaning lies there. Read the story of Adam and Eve and the forbidden fruit; we are all in the same boat; we are all broken, lost souls, so cut others some slack, yourself too. Find contentment in family, friends, work, and leisure but do leisure like Americans and Australians, meaning make it hard work that forces you to smile. Read the article. It is quite nice. Enjoy. The CDC Slashed The COVID-19 Fatality Rate To A Fraction Of Earlier Estimate Used To Justify Lockdowns
These self-delusions do not obviate the personal responsibility of the person issuing orders to shut down the economy or trample constitutional, civil, and human rights. Such orders may only be issued based on solid information and knowledge. Without out solid information and knowledge, the politician is acting whimsically, or more bluntly, tyrannically. "Governments throughout the world and across the US justified extreme, draconian, undemocratic, and unconstitutional (in most US states) "lockdown" and stay-at-home orders on the grounds that the COVID-19 virus was exceptionally fatal. In March, the World Health Organization (WHO) was claiming that the fatality rate was a very high 3.4 percent. Yet as time went on, it became increasingly clear that such high estimates were essentially meaningless because researchers had no idea how many people were actually infected with the disease. Tests were largely being conducted on those with symptoms serious enough to end up in emergency rooms or doctor's offices. By late April, many researchers were publishing new studies showing that the number of people with the disease was actually much higher than was previously thought. Thus, it became clear that the percentage of people with the disease who died from it suddenly became much smaller. Now, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) has released new estimates suggesting that the real fatality rate is around 0.26 percent. Specifically, the report concludes that the "symptomatic case fatality ratio" is 0.4 percent. But that's just symptomatic cases. In the same report, the CDC also claims that 35 percent of all cases are asymptomatic. Or, as the Washington Post reported this week: The agency offered a "current best estimate" of 0.4 percent. The agency also gave a best estimate that 35 percent of people infected never develop symptoms. Those numbers when put together would produce an infection fatality rate of 0.26, which is lower than many of the estimates produced by scientists and modelers to date." Of course, not all scientists have been wrong on this. Back in March, Stanford scientist John Ioannidis was much, much closer to the CDC's estimate than the WHO. The Wall Street Journal noted in April: In a March article for Stat News, Dr. Ioannidis argued that Covid-19 is far less deadly than modelers were assuming. He considered the experience of the Diamond Princess cruise ship, which was quarantined Feb. 4 in Japan. Nine of 700 infected passengers and crew died. Based on the demographics of the ship’s population, Dr. Ioannidis estimated that the U.S. fatality rate could be as low as 0.025% to 0.625% and put the upper bound at 0.05% to 1%—comparable to that of seasonal flu. Not that this will settle the matter. Proponents of destroying human rights and the rule of law in order to carry out lockdowns will continue to insist that "we didn't know" what the fatality rate was back in March. The lack of evidence, however, didn't stop proponents of lockdowns from implementing policies that destroyed the ability of families to earn a living, and which also created social conditions that caused child abuse and suicides to spike. But for more sane people, extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Those who have claimed that lockdowns are "the only option" had virtually no evidence at all to support their position. Indeed, such extreme over-the-top measures such as the general lockdowns required an extreme level of high-quality, nearly irrefutable evidence that lockdowns would work and were necessary in the face of a disease with an extremely high fatality rate. But the only "data" the prolockdown people could offer was speculation and hyperbolic predictions of bodies piling up in the streets. But that became politically unimportant. The people who wanted lockdowns had gained the obeisance of powerful people in government institutions and in the media. So actual data, science, or respect for human rights suddenly became meaningless. All that mattered was getting those lockdowns. So the lockdown crowd destroyed the lives of millions in the developed world—and more than a hundred million in the developing world—to satisfy the hunches of a tiny handful of politicians and technocrats." The fact that these totalitarian/fascist governors acted without solid knowledge to curtail our rights is clear and convincing evidence that they are not people who should have access to power. These are not good people. Trying to do good for society and their states, these are people who are driven by a desire to wield power. Sadly, by doing so, they did much damage. Totalitarianism is what progressives do when freed from the strictures of the rule of law. It is time to permanently curtail the ability of our politicians to act this way ever again. It is time to take back out states and turn the power-mad politician out to pasture. Recall the governors who locked down their states. Pass state and federal constitutional amendments to deny politicians this power in the future. Such draconian actions should be decided solely by the people, not by their representatives. Germany clamps down on SINGING over coronavirus fears
How soon before East German sleeper agent Angela Merkel outlaws kite flying? Opinion | The ‘Liberal Leaning’ Media Has Passed Its Tipping Point "About 35 years ago I was sitting at lunch next to Jeane Kirkpatrick, a onetime Democrat who became a foreign-policy adviser to President Reagan and later U.S. ambassador to the United Nations. She was lamenting what she called the “liberal leaning” media. As the president of CBS News, I assured her it was only a “liberal tilt” and could be corrected. “You don’t understand,“ she scolded. “It’s too late.” Kirkpatrick was prophetic. The highly influential daily newspapers in New York, Washington, Los Angeles and Boston are now decidedly liberal. On the home screen, the three broadcast network divisions still have their liberal tilt. Two of the three leading cable news sources are unrelentingly liberal in their fear and loathing of President Trump. News organizations that claim to be neutral have long been creeping leftward, and their loathing of Mr. Trump has accelerated the pace. The news media is catching up with the liberalism of the professoriate, the entertainment industry, upscale magazines and the literary world. Recent arrivals are the late-night TV hosts who have broken the boundaries of what was considered acceptable political humor for networks. To many journalists, objectivity, balance and fairness—once the gold standard of reporting—are not mandatory in a divided political era and in a country they believe to be severely flawed. That assumption folds neatly into their assessment of the president. To the journalists, including more than a few Republicans, he is a blatant vulgarian, an incessant prevaricator, and a dangerous leader who should be ousted next January, if not sooner. Much of journalism has become the clarion voice of the “resistance,” dedicated to ousting the president, even though he was legally elected and, according to the polls, enjoys the support of about 44% of likely 2020 voters. This poses significant problems not only for Mr. Trump but for the media’s own standing. If Mr. Trump prevails in November, what’s the next act, if any, for journalists and the resistance? They will likely find Mr. Trump more dangerous and offensive in a second term than in the first. More important, how will a large segment of the public ever put stock in journalism it considers hostile to the country’s best interests? Unfortunately, dominant media organizations have bonded with another large segment of the public—one that embraces its new approach. Pulling back from anti-Trump activism could prove commercially harmful." Talk about missing the 900lb gorilla in the room. The media is dying, quickly, they are bleeding out because of their sprint to the cult of progressivism. This fall will be a shock to the media, among many others. Middle America is no longer willing to sit by while the progressives destroy the nation whether it be via toxic progressive policies California is well known for or whether it be by shutting down the economy for an infectious virus that is less deadly than many other infectious viruses we survived without economic calamity during the latter half of the 20th century. "On the other hand, how would the media respond to a Joe Biden victory (beyond exhilaration)? Will Mr. Biden be subjected to the rigor and skepticism imposed on Mr. Trump? Will he get a pass because he is a liberal and “not Trump”? The media’s protective coverage of the sexual-assault allegation against Mr. Biden is perhaps a clear and concerning preview to how his presidency would be covered. The media seems uninterested in these issues of bias. But wouldn’t a softening of its editorial orientation bring new readers or viewers? Probably not. The growth of new customers would be more than offset by the defection of outraged members of the current audience. The news media seems very comfortable with its product and ability to sell it. There’s probably no way to seal the gap between the media and a large segment of the public. The media likes what it is doing. Admires it. Celebrates it. There is no personal, professional or financial reason to change. If anything, the gap will expand. Ultimately, the media finds the “deplorables” deplorable." Of course, Biden will get a pass, and like Obama will be the worse off for it. If Biden wins, he will be another Obama-like placeholder. He will do little, but what he does will be badly thought through and fated for failure because the media is unwilling to do their job. Presidents do best when they have a real opposition party with real ideas attempting to find real solutions and a press corps that is willing to test every idea and policy coming out of the administration. Bad ideas in this environment die, good ones prevail. We have neither of those safeguards today. While the Republican Party is likely to come to the table to attempt to offer real ideas and solutions, the Democrats have been unwilling to do so since the election of Obama. The result was the utter failure of the Obama administration to find any real solutions to problems. Obamacare was a failure from day one and only got worse over time. Obama mostly dismantled this abomination before he left office, Trump mostly finished the job although there is more work to do. Obama received a mostly calm world from Bush and left a total disaster for Trump because Obama was a fickle man unable to make tough decisions. His basic decision-making technique was to leave the decision until it made itself. The result was a world afire from the South China Sea, to Russia, to Venezuela, to the Middle East, to Saharan Africa and Central Africa, to Ukraine, and the economic collapse of Europe still underway. If voters think we need more of Obama's destructive damaging policies and incompetence, so be it, but they will rue the day. "Dan Abrams, ABC’s chief legal-affairs anchor and founder of the website Mediaite, has a novel but valuable idea for the media—candor. Speaking to the matter at February’s Rancho Mirage Writers Festival, Mr. Abrams said “I think the first thing that would help . . . is to admit . . . that the people in the media are left of center.” It would be delightful if a publisher, an editor, a reporter, would just say: Yes, I am left of center! I’m proud of it. I think our reporting is accurate. It best serves the public. And the credibility of the media. So there! Publications open about their bias might feel freer to focus on the specifics: story selection, presentation, facts, fairness, balance. Not devoid of subtlety for sure, but manageable. Journalism affects social cohesion. Convinced of its role and its legitimacy, however, the media doesn’t seem to much care. And the other side can certainly enjoy throwing rotten tomatoes at distant targets. But America won’t reunite until far more people can look at a news story in print or on the screen and, of all things, believe it." Please do so, it will only hasten the collapse which would end this charade more quickly. The problem is the people disagree so strongly they are abandoning the media ships in droves. The media is in full collapse, so they want to double down on collapse. Go right ahead, make my day. We live during an odd time What Charles Mackay titled, Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds The book is old but brilliant and shows how these popular delusions are common and recure often. Where the book excels is in its ability to describe the collapse and the aftermath. It is worth a read alongside The_True_Believer, and When_Prophecy_Fails. These three books will help you understand how and why normally intelligent people fall for absurd ideas and double down right up to the final collapse. The media, academia, and many more are in the throws of the progressive cult, here during the latter days of the progressive movement. Progressivism is no longer a political movement and has not been since Earth Day 1970, which signified the replacement of the political movement with a secular cult. All that remains is for Americans to understand this and move on. But the secular cult of progressivism is a tough customer. The Boomers hewed to the cult and were successful in destroying the education of young Americans to the point that they have little or no ability to push back against the ideology and the cant of the progressive cult. If Biden wins, we will see a shocking reduction in human and constitutional rights which will make the shutdown pale in comparison. We will also likely see Americans close to open rebellion or, perhaps, in open rebellion. The progressives are fascists who want control for the same reasons all fascist, socialist, and their ilk want to control, to crush the will of the people and make them into serfs. Progressivism, like all socialist models, is nothing more than feudalism applied to the modern socio-economic world. The question is, are you, freeman or serf? If you are the latter vote Democratic Party in the fall. If not, don't. Kurt Schlicter's Kelly Turnbull novels were supposed to be cautionary tales, the progressive left seems to be taking them as road maps. Kelly Turnbull novels |
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