What happens when you try to use rail past the sell by date

 Metro train separates with passengers aboard

More below.

Rail has a sell by date, or, if you rather, a total capital replacement date, which is usually about 35- 40 years after the build date. While some parts like the train cars may need replacement before this, everything needs to be replaced as the system approaches the sell by date. The Washington Metro system is at or past its sell by date. The problem for light rail, subways and the like is that this capital replacement is best done  entirely in one go, and not piecemeal. That result is in a massive amount of system down time, and a huge expense. 

The costs is commonly just about the equivalent of the initial construction cost. If this were a private entity, they would have needed to pay down the initial capital construction costs, and likely needed to also create some amount of additional reserve for the 35 year capital replacement. But because it is public, it did neither. The fares paid went only to operating expenses, and now the system is faced with massive costs which it cannot afford, and which the riders will not be willing to fund. The system would need to increase fares dramatically to cover these costs.

So, like all the other incompetent rail transit agencies, they simply kick the can down the track, fixing the problem de jour, but never actually fixing the real underlying problem, total capital replacement. The longer this goes on the greater the danger to riders, and people in the community. Rail is a deadly form of transportation, and light rail is one of the most deadly, allowing this deadly danger to become even more dangerous is criminal. 

Here in Portlandia, our Eastside MAX line is just hitting its 30 year mark. It was opened back in the mid 1980s, and already we are seeing problems, and an increase in accidents, and equipment problems and failures. Metro is, I believe about a decade older than Portlandia's MAX, so we can watch Metro collapse, and understand what is in store for our Eastside MAX. 

I am uninclined to believe that Trump, and the Republicans in Congress will be amenable to providing all of the rail operators with the trillions of funding necessary to bring all of these lines up to capital replacement standards. Nor am I willing to believe that riders will be willing to wait a year or more which these repairs are performed. 

Luckily, the self drive car is poised to swoop in and permanently pick up the slack here, completely obviating the need for these expensive dinosaur transit modes.