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​Trump's flank

11/11/2016

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Some wise and sagacious advice from Richard Epstein for Mr. Trump on trade, his area of greatest economic weakness - AEI

Trade, and tariffs, some advice.

"Right off the bat you face this key choice on how to mend the economy by making the United States more competitive than it has been. You have two choices, one of which is fatal and the other that promises a fair measure of success. The first path is to try to shut out the competition from overseas by putting up trade barriers, reneging on previous trade deals, and vetoing the Transpacific Partnership. It is strictly a lose/lose proposition. The consequences of this approach could lead to a trade war that would make the economic sins of progressive politicians look puny in comparison. Taking that approach will also alienate huge portions of American businesses that depend on foreign trade. The upshot will be a further loss in jobs for the very people who need them most, who will abandon you in droves when this happens. I interpret the surprising rise in the market as evidence that Wall Street does not think that you will follow through on that plan. You should listen to its advice.

The correct approach is to leave international affairs as they are by taking steps to fix the economy at home. The largest growth industry in the United States is compliance. Remove those barriers domestically and American businesses, large and small, will be able to compete more effectively in world markets in ways that will benefit workers at home and consumers overseas who can get the benefit of our products. This approach is win/win. Jobs will return to the United States when we remove the domestic barriers to their creation. Foreign nations will benefit from the increased trade, and become stronger and better allies.
….
The key point remains this. If we clean out our own domestic institutions, we shall raise the ability of American firms to compete world-wide. Jobs will then be created and standards of living will move up. So you must hold off on your ill-conceived trade plans so that domestic reforms will allow for economic prosperity both at home and abroad. You have a busy period ahead. Don’t fritter the opportunity away."

Fix the problems at home, cut the binding, strangling regulations, streamline the tax code, or better yet move to a consumption tax. Then work to make trade better, but do not fall into the lose/lose trap Epstein outlines. You have the ability to become a Reganesque figure if you do, goat if you do not.
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