Trump

​Relax it will mostly be business as usual although we should see a serious shift away from militant foreign policy towards something more reasonable. The Obama/Hillary reactive foreign policy was the greatest foreign policy mistake since WWII, it left the world in a state of near complete chaos. Trump appears to have none of the Obama/Hillary foreign policy impetus, thank God. This area of policy will end up dependent upon the men and women he chooses to advise him. Trump seems to have a pretty good ability to choose advisors, and while egotistical, he has shown sufficient humility to understand that he needs high quality advisors, and a willingness to accept their advice. This is one of Obama, and Hillary's great failures, the belief they are intellectually, and experientially superior to their advisors. 

I suspect Trump will do better, simply because nearly another policy would be better. Trump is a deal maker, and in the end he will want to make deals. He fully and totally misunderstands the Trade Deficit, Free Trade, Specialization of Labor, and the fact that it is not possible to "bring back to America" the jobs which are gone. Americans are not going to allow the return of high prices, and low quality products which allowed the high wages of to workers of years past. The manufacturing is already coming back, and Trump might get credit for this but it began before Trump, and for reasons unrelated to Trump.

I do believe that Trump is not ideologically driven, and this offers the opportunity for him to learn the economics necessary to end up at the right place regarding trade, unlike Hillary. We will have to wait and see.

Immigration is an area I am unsure about. Trump clearly does not understand that his policies, particularly his policies in the tax, and regulation realms will require more immigration since we simply do not have enough people of working age in the country to perform the duties we need performed. This will not just require high skilled H1B visa candidates, but low, and unskilled workers as well. I hope Trumps lack of ideological limitations allows him to find the correct path regarding immigration. 

I expect the markets to react to this the way the markets reacted to Brexit. They will go crazy for a few days, then settle down, and return to normal and begin making money again. The idea that Trump will be bad for business is silly, and likely driven by the investment bankers who so deeply wanted the continuation of the corrupt progressive order.

Trump seems to be the agent of change for the Republican party. He seems to have fractured the hold the elite, progressive Republicans had over the party, and while not the element of change, will allow that element to arise in the party. The Democrats, however, are in a more difficult position. They will now hunker down, and canker over as all mass movements do when faced with adversity. They will not change, but will become hardened into their position. In addition, they have no young candidates, and very few governors available to offer the party a breath of fresh air. The appear to have demographically hardened. This is likely to prove an insurmountable challenge in future elections.

Trump is no second coming, but he was the only available blocking maneuver available. I remain hopeful that the change wind will blow finally removing the remaining detritus of the progressive era. This might take a while.

Endeavor.