Iran's oil production is making a big comeback "Market data from Reuters shows that Iranian crude oil exports in April reached 2.3 million barrels per day, exceeding forecasts, while May exports are expected to be around 2.1 million barrels per day—or almost 60 percent higher than a year ago. In May last year, by way of comparison, Iran was exporting about 1.3 million bpd, according to Reuters."
This is crushing Russia, Saudi, and the oil bulls. "A week ago, Iranian officials announced that sanctions on the country’s shipping lines have been completely removed, and that Iranian tankers are now free to dock at any port in the world." It's not just production, but delivery as well. "It’s a tough pill for rival Saudi Arabia to swallow, as the two fight for market share. Iran has regained almost half of its pre-sanctions European market, and exported 1.7 million bpd to Asia in April. Last week, Iran introduced a discount on the June contract for its heavy crude going to Asia, just a few days after Saudi Arabia announced a price increase for its own June contract for the continent. With the discount, Iranian oil will be noticeably cheaper for Asian clients than both Saudi and Iraqi crude." Saudi is in a bind. It must sell oil to combat the Iranians proxy wars being waged in the Islamic Reformation. But it needs all of its oil revenues to provide subsidies for the Saudi people. Without them there will be unrest. This means Saudi must find a way to enhance its revenues, but it has only the most nascent economy. Iran, on the other hand are the "Ferningis" of the Middle East. They have an integrated economy which has suffered due to sanctions, but with the sanctions lifted, they will prosper. China is also in a very bad way economically with an oversupply of virtually every commodity, including oil, but still the Chinese believe the world economy will bounce back momentarily. As we said earlier, that will not happen. The Chinese contraction is now so obvious that even Russia is fretting! The Iranians are cutting oil prices. This will make Iranian oil even more attractive than Saudi oil. It will also make it more attractive than Russian oil. Brilliant! China's response is panic selling of steel. This will soon be followed by panic selling of other commodities in deep oversupply. Welcome cheap Chinese steel, dump tariffs - The Boston Globe China produced more steel than the rest of the world in April How low can it go?
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