Watch the entire video below but the part in interest is after 25:00. Deng Xiaoping realized that socialism was an abject failure which was destroying the Chinese people not benefiting them. He understood that the Maoist way would end up in an anti-socialist revolution which would throw out the Chinese Communist Party. Xi Jinping has chosen the Stalinist totalitarian system instead. This will not end well. It is much more likely that Xi's model will ultimately lead to war. As a socialist totalitarian dictator's run into economic problems they need to find an enemy to orient the people against. The US has been the world's all-purpose enemy since 1945. Further, China is trying to rebuild regional suzerainty through a tribute model by using the Belt and Road initiative and other mechanisms to bind the nations surrounding it as tributary vassal states. More below. To create a tributary state system, China needs to co-opt the US as the protector of the sea lanes in the South China Sea region. China misapprehends that the US is in decline. The Obama administration's daffy foreign policy, lead from behind strategery, er, "strategy," and high-speed political vacillations on many issues created this misapprehension. We have entered a dangerous period. China believes we are weaker than we are. It also desires an outcome we cannot accept nor will the states China wants to bind to it as vassals. And, the Obama administration's feckless actions have repeatedly confirmed that China's assumptions are correct. We are seeing the outcome of the Obama fecklessness now with Xi counseling the NorKs to push Trump because Xi believes Kim can get a better deal including keeping his nuclear weapons or perhaps the nuclear program. This is dangerous. Trump is not feckless Obama. Trump has decided the Korean peninsula will be nuclear-free and is willing to take the necessary actions to achieve America's stated goal. This is the correct goal, but the Obama legacy of incompetence is hampering its attainment and increasing the chance of war. Hopefully, Xi is using the NorK negotiations to evaluate Trump's determination. If so, Trump's determination should rein in Xi's excesses. If not, the chance of diplomacy by other means will have become much more likely. It will also thoroughly FUBAR the NorK nuclear negotiations. Kim is a mincing dandy out of his league with Trump and Xi. The only question now is will Xi come to his senses, and accept that Trump means business both with the NorK issues and the South China Sea issues? I believe that we will know which way this will go once we can tell if Xi will continue to pursue his goal to create tributary vassal states or not. If he does, that will set up the probability of direct US-China confrontation. All eyes should be watching the Korean negotiations which will be our first chance to see where the chips lie. In the first Mattis video below, he explains his understanding of China's strategy. It is excellent and short. The second video is the entire talk, if you have any interest in the State of the World, this is one of the best talks on the subject by one of America's few stratigic thinkers and realists.
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