With Iran-Backed Conversions, Shiites Gain Ground in Africa
. . . as it spreads, we will need to remain aloof, yet ready to help the Shiite maneuver the battle towards the full, unfettered reformation of both Sunni, and Shiite factions of Islam. The goal is ultimately a renaissance, and enlightenment of Islam, of the type Protestantism brought to Christianity.
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“OPEC is Dead”
. . . the House of Saud must pump oil, or it will die. Of course, OPEC is dead. "Times have changed, though, and the country’s new man-behind-the-throne—the 31 year old deputy crown prince Mohammed bin Salman—has little interest in ceding Saudi market share in pursuit of higher prices while the rest of OPEC gets a free ride." Exactly. The House of Saud cannot afford to build Iran's coffers by cutting revenue. With Iran sans sanctions, The House of Saud is in dire straits for Iran already has an integrated economy, while Saud has an economy limited to oil alone. If allowed, Iran will use its oil revenue to build its integrated economy. This is the reason we are only now seeing the House of Saud pay attention to its non-oil economy, intent on selling off a portion of ARAMCO to fund a $2 trillion attempt to see if it can get the Arabs to actually go to work. Good luck with that. The reason they did not do it before? They do not think it is possible; they are desperate! The Islamic Reformation is coming, Iran will anchor the Shia, The House of Saud will Anchor the Sunni, the outcome should be the sublimation of Salafism/Wahhabism into a reformed Islam more in tune with the Enlightened West. And optimistically, this will trigger an Islamic Enlightenment. To do this the House of Saud, and its alliance with Wahhabism must fall. It's Game of Thrones with consequences! Iran’s new parliament has more women than clerics
. .. . one cannot say the same for either in the House of Saud, the abject worst human rights violator in the Middle East. One of these is an enemy, one is not. Can you spot which is which? In Saudi women cannot leave the home alone, nor can they drive, just two among myriad other human, and women's rights abuses. In fact, there is no republican governance, not even fictional in Saudi. On the other hand, in Iran, women not only can hold office, they do in large numbers. The sharpest irony in all of this is that Bush sought to bring democracy to the Middle East, and although he did plant the seed, it has yet to bear fruit. While Obama, accidentally acted with Iran, and succeeded. Understanding the Saudi, Chinese “Economic Nuclear War” Threat; Saudi 911 Round-Up | MishTalk
. . . and the fact that the House is the enemy of America, not an ally. This seems to be unfathomable to Congress, the President, and most Americans, but it is true. We need a serious come to Jesus on this issue. We need to reduce to near zero visas for Saudis, and we need to actively begin to undermine the House of Saud. While we should stay out of the pending Islamic reformation, our policies should be designed to maximized the damage to the House of Saud, while maximizing the benefit to Iran. While this runs contrary to the accepted Cold War stance of the Neocons, the Republican party, and nearly everyone in our political establishment, until we do so, the security of Americans, and the stability of the world is at risk. Saud is the enemy, not Iran. Go read the entire piece, and please click on and read the supporting documentation. This issue is important, and just beginning. We will hear more about this in the future. Erdogan, enters the game of thrones in the Middle East, in the pending Islamic Reformation . . .4/16/2016 Erdogan urges Muslims to overcome splits, fight terror
. . . however, siding with the House of Saud is a mistake. Does Erdogan think he is fooling anyone? Besides fooling Obama, that is! BrothersJudd Blog: THE MIGHTY SAUDI WAR MACHINE...:
. . . brilliant! "For all the bluster of Saudi generals who vow to lead their troops into Sana'a if necessary, the campaign now has more limited goals, says the confidant. Saudi Arabia wants to send Iran and its regional clients a message that it will resist their regional push. With Iran holding sway through its proxies in Baghdad, Damascus and Beirut, Saudi Arabia is loth to let a fourth capital, particularly one in its back yard, go Iran's way. But the campaign is now mostly about blunting the capabilities of the Houthis (a militia of Zaydis, a splinter Shiite sect concentrated in Yemen's north) and their ally, Ali Abdullah Saleh, who until Saudi Arabia engineered his removal in 2012 was the Arab world's longest-reigning ruler. Together the Houthis and Mr Saleh make a formidable force. Whereas the former are guerrillas who model themselves on Lebanon's Hizbullah, the latter commands Yemen's Republican army, which has been fighting wars (including against the Houthis) for 25 years. Together they wield an arsenal of tanks, ballistic missiles and, at one point, even the odd fighter-jet. Houthi fighters head to battle carrying charms, such as keys and visas to paradise. Their preachers on satellite television call for re-establishing Zaydi rule across the border, not just over the three border provinces the Al Sauds seized in 1934 but even over Mecca farther north. That is implausible given Saudi Arabia's air power and network of allies. But some Saudis ask how their overfed armed forces would fare should battle-hardened Houthi fighters make even a limited push across the border. It says much about Saudi trepidation that General Olyan limits himself to defending Saudi territory; he says his troops make no attempt to attack the Houthi heartland of Saada governorate, just across the frontier." The lede comes from the spot on comment of Kaspar. The House of Saud's military "superiority" is entirely technical. And once the money dries up, so will the technical. Iran is playing a very good game of Go, the House of Saud is limited to its childish understanding of checkers. While Saud would like to get out of Yemen, for all practical intents and purposes, it cannot. The Shia will consolidate Yemen if allowed, and Saud cannot allow that. On the other hand, Iran is expending little in this fight, while Saud is expending much. The House of Saud was a spartan band, back at the dawn of time when it was not fat and money rich. Now rich Saud is wont to throw money at every problem. But the money dwindles, and the House of Saud's power dwindles as well. Iran is forcing Saud to spend money like the proverbial drunken sailor. The Saud's cargo cult military will eat up as much money as Iran desires, but will never deliver on its promises. Whether Saud stays or leaves Yemen, Iran will continue to prosecute this proxy war, and open others, eventually engaging the House of Saud, and likely reducing it. Expect the next decade of Middle East history to rewrite much of what we have known up to now. If the US is capable of coherent 21st century foreign policy strategy, we will find ways to undermine the House of Saud, while trading with, and democratizing Iran. This is a long game. We need to reduce the Iranian hardliners, and bring Iran to a modern economic, and political status. By doing so, the people of Iran will be able to soften the hardliners, and move away from Iranian nationalism, and hardline Islam to a more internationalist stance. At the same time we need to complete reduce the House of Saud, the Salafist, and the Wahhabist. This will allow a dramatic reduction in Islamic terrorism, and hopefully trigger a Reformation of Islam, and optimistically, the Enlightenment of Islam. The long game is always a difficult tightrope walk, it is always worth it. This will also allow the American foreign policy establishment to finally cull its remaining Cold Warriors. By my count that's a Win/Win/Win. Therefer! Where Is Islam’s Martin Luther?
. . . sounds like a new children's book, but it is much more serious. It is good to find I have fellow travelers on this long difficult road. I am not an Islamic textual scholar nor is Ayaan Hirsi Ali, but her book is a fine first step towards changing the understanding of what is going on in Islam, both within Islam, and outside. The forces of antiquity and hate have about run their course, the Reformation, and modernization of Islam is now necessary, and the two large factions within Islam are in direct conflict, Shia, and Sunni ( Salafist/Wahhabist Sunni Islam). As we have seen in earlier posts, the House of Saud thought it could destabilize the Shia/Iran by cratering the price of oil. But this has only worked to the Shia/Iranian advantage. Proxy wars in Yemen, among other places are heating up, and the House of Saud will need to continue these to regain Sunni ascendency. Internecine warfare is also moving apace with the House of Saud fighting a fellow Sunni/Salafist/Wahhabist state, ISIS. The New York Times has an article on the sectarian war undergirding oil Category: Wahhabism Back to the article. "Whatever the case, Hirsi Ali states, “My own sense is that a Muslim Reformation will not come from within the ranks of the Islamic clergy.” Very well, but if the central “argument in this book is that religious doctrines matter and are in need of reform,” from what quarter—and how—these reforms ought to come, will take another book, at least." Because Reformation requires a book. Really? Reformation of Islam will likely require war, and perhaps books can make some people understand what it happening, and why it is happening, but no book published and sold in the non-Islamic nations will have much effect. Ali is simply explaining what we are seeing. I have no idea whether her Medina vs. Mecca vs. Moderate muslims paradigm is valuable, or not. I do find the Shia vs. Sunni valuable, but then again, perhaps I am wrong. I will continue to look for someone who I think can explain the deeper issues. The broad surface issues are simple enough even I can figure them out. How Saudi Arabia Turned Its Greatest Weapon on Itself
"The oil wars of the 21st century are underway. In recent years, the Saudis have made clear that they regard the oil markets as a critical front line in the Sunni Muslim-majority kingdom’s battle against its Shiite-dominated rival, Iran. Their favored tactic of “flooding,” pumping surplus crude into a soft market, is tantamount to war by economic means: the oil trade’s equivalent of dropping the bomb on a rival. In 2006, Nawaf Obaid, a Saudi security adviser, warned that Riyadh was prepared to force prices down to “strangle” Iran’s economy. Two years later, the Saudis did just that, with the aim of hampering Tehran’s ability to support Shiite militia groups in Iraq, Lebanon and elsewhere." This is a comedy routine, the House of Saud has no substantive economy outside of oil, while Iran does, and is already rebuilding that economy after the elimination of international sanctions. ". . . [I]n 2011, Prince Turki al-Faisal, the former chief of Saudi intelligence, told NATO officials that Riyadh was prepared to flood the market to stir unrest inside Iran. Three years later, the Saudis struck again, turning on the spigot. But this time, they overplayed their hand. When Saudi officials made their move in the fall of 2014, taking advantage of an already glutted market, they no doubt hoped that lower prices would undercut the American shale industry, which was challenging the kingdom’s market dominance. But their main purpose was to make life difficult for Tehran: “Iran will come under unprecedented economic and financial pressure as it tries to sustain an economy already battered by international sanctions,” argued Mr. Obaid." There is a reason Lawrence of Arabia was necessary, it is not because the Arabs are great strategists. The elimination of the international sanctions allow Iran to begin quickly rebuilding their economy. The House of Saud, on the other hand is faced with oil prices which do not pay the bills. The Saudi's are in talks with various business consultants on developing and building their economy, to create an economy outside of oil. This is far too little, far too late. And who will be manning these industries, Saudis? What a joke. Saudis only want a position of authority in the company, the actual work must be done by others. It was not Iran which came under "unprecedented economic and financial pressure," but Saudi Arabia. "And then there is Saudi Arabia itself. All the evidence suggests that Saudi officials never expected oil prices to fall below $60 a barrel. But then they never expected to lose their sway as the swing producer within the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, or OPEC. Despite wishful statements from Saudi ministers, the kingdom’s efforts last month to make a deal with Russia, Venezuela and Qatar to restrict supply and push up prices collapsed. The I.M.F. has warned that if government spending is not reined in, the Saudis will be bankrupt by 2020. Suddenly, the world’s reserve bank of black gold is looking to borrow billions of dollars from foreign lenders. King Salman’s response has been to promise austerity, higher taxes and subsidy cuts to a people who have grown used to state largess and handouts. That raises questions about the kingdom’s internal cohesion — even as the king decided to shoulder the burden of regional security in the Middle East, fighting wars on two fronts. Has there ever been an oil state as overleveraged at home and overextended abroad? Meanwhile, by concluding the historic nuclear agreement, Iran is getting out from under the burden of economic sanctions. It will not be lost on Riyadh that this adds another oil producer to the world market that it can no longer control. The instability and economic misery for smaller oil-producing states like Nigeria and Azerbaijan look set to continue. But that’s collateral damage. The real story is how the Saudis have been hurt by their own weapon." This article is a primer on how low oil prices are helping peace loving democracies, and throttling the more malignant oil tyrants. The author makes a serious foot fault early in the article writing, "In the West, we have largely forgotten the lessons of 1974, partly because our economies have changed and are less vulnerable, but mainly because we are not the Saudis’ principal target." This misunderstands the relationship between the House of Saud and Wahhabism. The US, and the West are the target, the principal target. Iran is only a regional target, and is considered only a religious pretender, which the House of Saud believes it can swat like a fly. The House of Saud is not an ally, just as the USSR was not an ally during, and then after WWII. After we gave the USSR massive support of food, weapons, train cars, fuel, airplanes, trucks, jeeps, pretty much everything but tanks, rifles, bullets, and men, Stalin turned agains the US, and the West, and opened a new front, the Cold War. If the House of Saud ever though the US were weak enough, it would do something similar. It is not an ally. While Iran is also not an ally, it could be, if we cultivate economic prosperity, and adopt a more rational Middle East policy. I am not holding my breath on either. For now, our primary policy in the Middle East needs to be the continuation of low oil prices. The House of Saud needs to be broken, and the Islamic Reformation needs to move apace. This will only happen if the House of Saud is placed under serious economic pressure to the point it fracture sufficiently to separate from the canker of Wahhabism/Salafism. The resulting loss of funding for Wahhabism/Salafism would impoverish this terror funding entity, and allow the Shia to pressure for actual reformation. Just as the Catholic Church needed reformation prior to 1500, so does the Wahhabist/Salafist Islam. This is not a war we need be involved in, but it is a war we should monitor closely. It would be nice if we were not saddled with the worst political class in history, but we are, and we will need to force them to do what is necessary, not what is expedient, nor what is most beneficial to the political class. The destruction of the cancerous oil tyrannies, and the Islamic Reformation will be built on the back of low oil prices, which is in major part due to shale oil, and fracking. We should be expanding this not limit available, drillable reserves. This will ensure low oil prices for a very long time, perhaps well past the time we leave oil as a primary energy source. |
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