The Sun Belt Is Rising Again, New Census Numbers Show | Newgeography.com
. . . and the cities, which were vaccinated by the 2008 Great Recession, are once again zombies, shambling towards their demise. Suburbs, exurbs, and rural living, however, is back on track to become the primary American living arrangement. Good! We have returned to the pre 2009-2011 aberration where it looked like Americans might be moving back to the city. So, how big a trend is this? "These trends predate the recession. Since 2000, the biggest migration winners in percentage terms are Raleigh, Austin, Las Vegas, Charlotte, Phoenix, and Orlando. In total numbers since 2000 it’s also a familiar list, led by places like Phoenix (net gain: 705,000), Dallas-Ft. Worth (569,000), Atlanta (547,000), Riverside-San Bernardino (513,000) and Houston (496,000). The biggest losers are also familiar, led by the New York metropolitan area, which has lost 2.65 million net migrants since 2000, followed by Los Angeles (negative 1.65 million) and Chicago (down 880,000). Remarkably the two metro areas that have benefited the most from the digitization of the economy are in the loser’s column; between them San Jose and San Francisco lost over 550,000 domestic migrants since 2000." Big! The old line progressive blue model cities are losing population to the new, and much more dynamic sunbelt cities. "The other big finding from the new estimates: suburbs are back. In the wake of the housing bust it was widely predicted that the ‘burbs were doomed by high gas prices, millennial preferences and a profound shift of employment to the core cities. The New York Times NYT -0.08% evenpublished fantasies on how the suburban carcass could be carved up, envisioning suburban three-car garages “subdivided into rental units with street front cafés, shops and other local businesses” while abandoned pools would become skateboard parks. As economist Jed Kolko has noted, the much celebrated era when core cities grew faster than suburbs — the immediate 2009-2011 aftermath of the recession — turned out to be remarkably short-lived. From July 2014-July 2015, only seven out of 53 core cities added more domestic migrants than their suburbs. Of these, the District of Columbia (Washington) could be considered high density urban; the other five core counties are functionally more suburban than urban (Phoenix, Raleigh, Richmond, Sacramento and San Antonio). Overall domestic migration continues from the core cities to the suburbs. Over the last year core counties lost a net 185,000 domestic migrants, while the suburban counties gained 187,000." If other people are hell, then the city is hell on steroids. "These trends are likely to continue as long as the economy achieves even modest growth. One big factor will be the migration of millennials, now headed increasingly to Sun Belt cities and suburbs. Since 2010, among educated millennials, the fastest growth in migration has been to such lower-cost regions as Atlanta, Orlando, New Orleans, Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, Pittsburgh, Columbus, and even Cleveland. This is largely a product of high housing prices. According to Zillow, rents claim upward of 45% of income in Los Angeles, San Francisco, New York, and Miami compared to less than 30% of income in places like Dallas-Fort Worth and Houston. The costs of purchasing a house are even more lopsided: in Los Angeles and the Bay Area, a monthly mortgage takes, on average, close to 40% of income, compared to 15% nationally. Millennials are also headed increasingly to the suburbs. According to the National Association of Realtors, 80% of the homes purchased by millennials between 2013 and 2014 were detached houses, and 8% had chosen attached housing. This trend will accelerate in the next few years, suggests Kolko, as the peak of the millennial wave turns 30." Apparently the indoctrination of the Millennial in K-12 and college has not held as well as anticipated. They seem to be able to make rational economic decisions once it is their money, and not the money of their parents, or others. Expect this awakening to continue as Millennials turn to work, and begin families. These trials will result in many of the Millennials being slowly be washed of their inane love for all things socialist. Remember the older Millennials are just now turning 30. Kotkin concludes, "America’s geography will be increasingly dominated by Sun Belt cities as well as suburbs. This challenges the preferred narrative among most planners and the mainstream media, as well as some developers who believe more Americans desire to live in high cost, high density locales. Some day perhaps the facts — as seen both in this year’s numbers and longer term trends — will intrude on the narrative. Dispersion is back, and getting stronger. It’s time that developers, planners and the media adjust to the facts, rather than just reflect their prejudices." Planners will not change. Portlandia is proof that the planner will continue to believe what amounts to religious beliefs regardless of the depth of the facts arrayed against him. These are intelligent people who are sufficiently clever to trap themselves in a belief net which is impervious to reality.
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China Howls but Dalai Lama Draws Crowd at Human Rights Talk
. . . no, not the Dalai Lama, silly, China! China today has some residual power driven by its status as the worlds largest manufacture of plastic trinkets, and iPhones. But not much as it is beginning the collapse of its myriad Ponzi Bubbles. IMF issues warning on global growth as China exports plunge - FT.com The IMF is correct to worry about China, but wrong to think that a little consumerism can right the economic ship of China. China is a massive debt Ponzi, construction Ponzi, Ghost cities Ponzi, infrastructure Ponzi, bank Ponzi, to name but the larger few. China cuts growth forecast - FT.com This is mostly blather, and bluster. It is impossible to trust these numbers, and from what I have seen, the backing internals do not support GDP growth of 6.5% and may not support GDP growth of even 3%. Nor do I see any of this changing over the next many years. I have no crystal ball, but the world has achieved peak Socialism in Japan, Europe, China, Russia, and much of Eastern Europe. The results of this are demographic decline, an aging population, business stagnation, and economic stagnation. The feckless, dithering politicians who cannot take the steps necessary to shift from the dying Socialist/progressive economic model to a new functional economic model, will not be savior in this scenario. I suspect this ends with the following cue card,"And a hard landing was had by all!" Huzzah! Huzzah! Huzzah! The Dalai Lama only needs to wait out the rapidly weakening China to win this one. What that win will look like is anyones guess, but let's hope, and pray for something less "interesting" than a full on revolution in China. Perhaps China could learn from the late 20th Century Russian revolution, and make it relatively uneventful? Yeah, I think that's mostly wishful thinking too, but I am sticking to that wish, since it would mean fewer casualties. Perhaps the CCP survives these rough seas, Perhaps not. Regardless, nothing will be the same for the CCP and its leaders. Once the China Colossus feet are revealed as made of clay, it will never be viewed the same. And once it cracks, and the little mouse inside wanders out, it will return to its appropriate place in world events. |
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