MaxedOutMama: Comments, Possibly Ill-Advised.
Well, maybe. MOM does her usual bang up job of parsing mountains of data to provide us with something usable. MOM's takeaway is recession, but not the usual Recession American style, but Recession Euro style. This would be bad. European recessions are long slow, and damaging.
As you may recall, I have had a heck of a time accepting that the data is showing a recession. I suspect MOM is correct that the data does not look right, it looks weak, but not actually classic for an American recession. This is especially confusing as the employment data looks quite positive. Her takeaway from that is the employment data is simply wrong. On that I will have to take her word. I simply don't know how to parse this data, but her assumption of a European recession answers many questions.
You need to read the entire thing. It is a bit "inside baseball" but seeing the data displayed, and analyzed is worthwhile.
The new subprime lending problems are a bit shocking. It seems our political class really is totally incompetent. Subprime is one of the primary drivers of the 2008 recession, why anyone would want a mulligan on that is unfathomable, leave it to our lack-lusterless President to find that sweet spot.
Perhaps another problem I am having is that Oregon is traditionally early into recessions, and late out. If we are not in, it can't be a recession. However, Oregon's economic mix has changes radically since I first moved here in 1972. I might be reading the economic conditions here with old eyes. This is something I try very hard to avoid but it is a common bias.
Anyway, this is one more mark for expecting a recession, and planning accordingly.
I am still on the fence, I expect the chance of a recession is still in the 40-45% range, far greater than the Blue Chip economists estimate, and less than the MOM, and Mish estimates. It's the best I got right now.
Here are a few Mish links:
Factory Orders Dive 1.7%, Core Capital Goods Dip 2.5%, Last Month Revised Lower | MishTalk
GDPNow Forecast Sinks to 0.4% Following More Weak Economic Report | MishTalk